Worldwide insect declines: An important message, but interpret with caution.

A recent paper claiming evidence of global insect declines achieved huge media attention, including claims of "insectaggedon" and a "collapse of nature." Here, we argue that while many insects are declining in many places around the world, the study has important limitations that should be highlighted. We emphasise the robust evidence of large and rapid insect declines present in the literature, while also highlighting the limitations of the original study.

Bird conservation and the land sharing-sparing continuum in farmland-dominated landscapes of lowland England.

Empirical evidence from many regions suggests that most species would be least negatively affected if human food demand were met through high-yield agricultural production and conservation of nonfarm ecosystems (land sparing), rather than through wildlife-friendly farming over a larger area (land sharing). However, repeated glaciation and a long history of agriculture may lead to different results in regions such as western Europe. We compared the consequences of land sparing and land sharing on breeding bird species in 2 lowland regions of England, The Fens, with 101 species, and Salisbury Plain, with 83. We derived density-yield responses for each species and then estimated regional population size under regional food production strategies, including land sharing and land sparing, a range of intermediate strategies, and a novel mixed strategy. In both regions, more species achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing than land sharing. In The Fens, the majority of birds were loser species (estimated to have smaller populations under all food production strategies than in the preagricultural baseline scenario), whereas in Salisbury Plain the majority were winners (smaller populations in the preagricultural baseline scenario). Loser species overwhelmingly achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing, whereas winner species achieved maximum regional population size under either land sharing or an intermediate strategy, highlighting the importance of defining which groups of species are the target of conservation. A novel 3-compartment strategy (combining high-yield farming, natural habitat, and low-yield farming) often performed better than either land sharing or land sparing. Our results support intermediate or 3-compartment land-sparing strategies to maximize bird populations across lowland agricultural landscapes. To deliver conservation outcomes, any shift toward land sparing must, however, ensure yield increases are sustainable in the long term, do not entail increased negative effects on surrounding areas, and are linked to allocation of land for nature.

Conservación de Aves y el Continuo de Suelo Compartido-Reservado en Paisajes Dominados por Tierras de Cultivo en las Tierras Bajas de Inglaterra Resumen La evidencia empírica proveniente de muchas regiones sugiere que la mayoría de las especies se verían menos afectadas negativamente si se cumpliera con la demanda humana de alimentos por medio de una producción agrícola de alto rendimiento y la conservación de ecosistemas no agrícolas (dosificación de suelo) en lugar de hacerlo a través de la agricultura amigable con la fauna en un área mayor (partición de suelo). Sin embargo, la glaciación repetitiva y una larga historia agrícola podrían brindar diferentes resultados en regiones como Europa occidental. Comparamos las consecuencias de la dosificación y la partición de suelo sobre especies de aves en reproducción en dos regiones de tierras bajas en Inglaterra: Los Fens, con 101 especies, y la Planicie Salisbury, con 83 especies. Derivamos las respuestas con densidad de rendimiento para cada especie y después estimamos el tamaño poblacional regional bajo estrategias regionales de producción de alimentos, incluyendo la dosificación y la partición de suelo, una gama de estrategias intermedias y una novedosa estrategia mixta. En ambas regiones, más especies alcanzaron el tamaño poblacional máximo para la región bajo la dosificación del suelo que bajo la partición del suelo. En Los Fens, la mayoría de las aves fueron especies perdedoras (se estimó que tendrían tamaños poblacionales menores bajo todas las estrategias de producción de alimento que en el escenario pre-agrícola de la línea base) mientras que en la Planicie Salisbury, la mayoría de las especies fueron ganadoras (con poblaciones más pequeñas en el escenario pre-agrícola de la línea base). Las especies perdedoras tuvieron abrumadoramente un tamaño poblacional máximo para la región bajo la dosificación de suelo, mientras que las especies ganadoras tuvieron este máximo poblacional bajo la partición de suelo o alguna estrategia intermedia, lo que resalta la importancia de la definición de cuáles grupos de especies son el objetivo de conservación. Una estrategia novedosa de tres compartimentos (combina la agricultura de alto rendimiento, el hábitat natural y la agricultura de bajo rendimiento) muchas veces tuvo un mejor desempeño que la dosificación o la partición del suelo. Nuestros resultados respaldan a las estrategias de dosificación de suelo intermedias o de tres compartimentos para maximizar las poblaciones de aves en todos los paisajes agrícolas de las tierras bajas. Para brindar resultados de conservación, cualquier cambio hacia la dosificación del suelo, sin embargo, debe asegurar que los incrementos en el rendimiento son sustentables a largo plazo, no conllevan un incremento de efectos negativos en las áreas circundantes, y que están vinculados a la asignación de suelo para la naturaleza.

The environmental costs and benefits of high-yield farming.

How we manage farming and food systems to meet rising demand is pivotal to the future of biodiversity. Extensive field data suggest impacts on wild populations would be greatly reduced through boosting yields on existing farmland so as to spare remaining natural habitats. High-yield farming raises other concerns because expressed per unit area it can generate high levels of externalities such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nutrient losses. However, such metrics underestimate the overall impacts of lower-yield systems, so here we develop a framework that instead compares externality and land costs per unit production. Applying this to diverse datasets describing the externalities of four major farm sectors reveals that, rather than involving trade-offs, the externality and land costs of alternative production systems can co-vary positively: per unit production, land-efficient systems often produce lower externalities. For GHG emissions these associations become more strongly positive once forgone sequestration is included. Our conclusions are limited: remarkably few studies report externalities alongside yields; many important externalities and farming systems are inadequately measured; and realising the environmental benefits of high-yield systems typically requires additional measures to limit farmland expansion. Yet our results nevertheless suggest that trade-offs among key cost metrics are not as ubiquitous as sometimes perceived.

Population consequences of migratory variability differ between flyways.

Long-distance migratory bird populations are likely to be declining because of climate change shifting habitats or anthropogenic habitat loss [1], but this may be mediated by the size of the non-breeding area over which a population spreads (migratory spread), and migration distance (or number of stop-over sites). High migratory spread may make populations more resilient to climate change because they already encompass shifting habitats, but less resilient to uneven habitat loss that may not affect populations with low migratory spread [2] (Figure 1C). As migration distance increases so the probability of encountering a stop-over site with negative environmental change increases [3] (Figure 1D). Consequently, if habitat shift through climate change is the main driver of declines we predict more positive population trends for high spread migrants, but the reverse for outright habitat loss (Figure 1E); we also predict negative population trends for longer distance migrants (Figure 1F). But these relationships may vary between flyways, which differ profoundly in their climate variation, human population change and geography. Here we show that climate change may be more important in Neotropic migrant population declines whereas habitat loss may be more important in the Afro-Palearctic.

Obesity and the Social Withdrawal Syndrome.

The relation between obesity and Social Withdrawal Syndrome (SWS) was examined using the data gathered by Rotenberg, Bharathi, Davies, and Finch (2013). One hundred and 35 undergraduates (80 females; Mage=21years-10months) completed standardized scales that assessed the SWS (low emotional trust beliefs in close others, low disclosure to close others, and high loneliness). BMI was calculated from self-reported weight and height. As hypothesized, quadratic relations were found in which participants with BMI>30 (i.e., obese) demonstrated the SWS pattern of low emotional trust beliefs in close others, low disclosure to close others, and high loneliness. As further evidence, lower emotional trust in close others, lower disclosure to close others, and greater loneliness were found for obese participants (>30 BMI, n=27) than both normal weight (<25 BMI, n=67) and overweight participants (25 to 30 BMI, n=41). The findings confirmed the hypothesis that obesity was associated with the SWS. The findings suggested that the lack of trust in others by obese individuals contributes to their unwillingness to seek out help for health and psychosocial problems.

Low migratory connectivity is common in long-distance migrant birds.

Estimating how much long-distance migrant populations spread out and mix during the non-breeding season (migratory connectivity) is essential for understanding and predicting population dynamics in the face of global change. We quantify variation in population spread and inter-population mixing in long-distance, terrestrial migrant land-bird populations (712 individuals from 98 populations of 45 species, from tagging studies in the Neotropic and Afro-Palearctic flyways). We evaluate the Mantel test as a metric of migratory connectivity, and explore the extent to which variance in population spread can be explained simply by geography. The mean distance between two individuals from the same population during the non-breeding season was 743 km, covering 10-20% of the maximum width of Africa/South America. Individuals from different breeding populations tended to mix during the non-breeding season, although spatial segregation was maintained in species with relatively large non-breeding ranges (and, to a lesser extent, those with low population-level spread). A substantial amount of between-population variation in population spread was predicted simply by geography, with populations using non-breeding zones with limited land availability (e.g. Central America compared to South America) showing lower population spread. The high levels of population spread suggest that deterministic migration tactics are not generally adaptive; this makes sense in the context of the recent evolution of the systems, and the spatial and temporal unpredictability of non-breeding habitat. The conservation implications of generally low connectivity are that the loss (or protection) of any non-breeding site will have a diffuse but widespread effect on many breeding populations. Although low connectivity should engender population resilience to shifts in habitat (e.g. due to climate change), we suggest it may increase susceptibility to habitat loss. We hypothesize that, because a migrant species cannot adapt to both simultaneously, migrants generally may be more susceptible to population declines in the face of concurrent anthropogenic habitat and climate change.

Insights into the migration of the European Roller from ring recoveries.

Despite recent advances in avian tracking technology, archival devices still present several limitations. Traditional ring recoveries provide a complementary method for studying migratory movements, particularly for cohorts of birds with a low return rate to the breeding site. Here we provide the first international analysis of ring recovery data in the European Roller Coracias garrulus, a long-distance migrant of conservation concern. Our data comprise 58 records of Rollers ringed during the breeding season and recovered during the non-breeding season. Most records come from Eastern Europe, half are of juveniles and over three quarters are of dead birds. Thus, ring recoveries provide migration data for cohorts of Rollers-juveniles and unsuccessful migrants-for which no information currently exists, complementing recent tracking studies. Qualitatively, our results are consistent with direct tracking studies, illustrating a broad-front migration across the Mediterranean Basin in autumn and the use of the Arabian Peninsula by Rollers from eastern populations in spring. Autumn movements were, on average, in a more southerly direction for juveniles than adults, which were more easterly. Juvenile autumn recovery direction also appeared to be more variable than in adults, though this difference was not statistically significant. This is consistent with juveniles following a naïve vector-based orientation program, and perhaps explains the 'moderate' migratory connectivity previously described for the Roller. In the first (qualitative) analysis of Roller non-breeding season mortality, we highlight the high prevalence of shooting. The recovery age ratio was juvenile-biased in autumn but adult-biased in spring. Although not statistically significant, this difference points towards a higher non-breeding season mortality of juveniles than adults. Our study demonstrates the complementarity of ring recoveries to direct tracking, providing an insight into the migration of juvenile Rollers and non-breeding season mortality.

Tweeting birds: online mentions predict future citations in ornithology.

The rapid growth of online tools to communicate scientific research raises the important question of whether online attention is associated with citations in the scholarly literature. The Altmetric Attention Score (AAS) quantifies the attention received by a scientific publication on various online platforms including news, blogs and social media. It has been advanced as a rapid way of gauging the impact of a piece of research, both in terms of potential future scholarly citations and wider online engagement. Here, we explore variation in the AAS of 2677 research articles published in 10 ornithological journals between 2012 and 2016. On average, AAS increased sevenfold in just five years, primarily due to increased activity on Twitter which contributed 75% of the total score. For a subset of 878 articles published in 2014, including an additional 323 ornithology articles from non-specialist journals, an increase in AAS from 1 to 20 resulted in a predicted 112% increase in citation count from 2.6 to 5.5 citations per article. This effect interacted with journal impact factor, with weaker effects of AAS in higher impact factor journals. Our results suggest that altmetrics (or the online activity they measure), as well as complementing traditional measures of scholarly impact in ornithology such as citations, may also anticipate or even drive them.

Bulimic symptoms and the social withdrawal syndrome.

One hundred and thirty-seven undergraduates (81 females; mean age = 21 years-10 months) completed the Bulimic SEDS subscale and standardized measures of trust beliefs in close others (mother, father, and friend), disclosure to them, and loneliness. Structural Equation Modelling yielded: (1) a negative path between Bulimic Symptoms and trust beliefs, (2) a positive path between trust beliefs and disclosure, (3) a negative path between trust beliefs and loneliness, and (4) a negative path between disclosure and loneliness. As expected, trust beliefs statistically mediated the relations between Bulimic Symptoms and both disclosure and loneliness and disclosure statistically mediated the relation between trust beliefs and loneliness. The findings supported the conclusion that individuals with bulimia nervosa are prone to the social withdrawal syndrome comprising a coherent and integrated pattern of low trust beliefs in close others, low disclosure to close others, and high loneliness.

Gemcitabine, 5-fluorouracil, and leucovorin in advanced biliary tract and gallbladder carcinoma: a North Central Cancer Treatment Group phase II trial.

BACKGROUND: Gemcitabine has broad activity in a variety of solid tumors including biliary tract carcinomas. The authors evaluated 6-month survival, response, and toxicity associated with a combination of gemcitabine, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), and leucovorin (LV) in patients with unresectable or metastatic biliary tract or gallbladder adenocarcinoma (ACA). METHODS: A 4-week course included 1000 mg/m2 gemcitabine by intravenous infusion over 30 minutes on Days 1, 8, and 15, 25 mg/m2 LV by intravenous push, and 600 mg/m2 5-FU by intravenous push after LV. RESULTS: Forty-two patients were enrolled in 6 months, 35 of whom had metastatic disease. Patients with biliary tract ACA included 24 with hepatic disease (19 patients had intrahepatic disease and 5 patients had extrahepatic disease) and 4 with disease in the ampulla of Vater. All patients were evaluable and received a median of 4 courses of treatment (range, 1-21 courses). Commonly occurring severe toxicity (NCI CTC Grade 3 or worse) included: dyspnea (four patients), nausea (four patients), fatigue (seven patients), thrombocytopenia (six patients), emesis (four patients), and diarrhea (four patients). Five partial responses (9.5%) occurred, 3 of which were sustained for > or = 8 weeks. No treatment-related deaths occurred. Thirty-two patients had disease progression and 38 died after a median follow-up of 20 months (range, 1.4-24 months). The median time to disease progression was 4.6 months (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 2.4-6.6%). The median survival period was 9.7 months (95% CI, 7-12%). CONCLUSIONS: This combination regimen was manageable in patients with advanced biliary tract and gallbladder ACA. Of 42 patients, 24 (57%) survived > or = 6 months, satisfying the primary end point of the trial. The length of survival suggested that gemcitabine, 5-FU, and LV had benefit equivalent to gemcitabine alone.